SCC Preview: Can Hamlin continue short-track success?

Yes, Jimmie Johnson has won five of the past six Sprint Cup races at Martinsville Speedway, site of Sunday's TUMS Fast Relief 500. Yes, over that span on NASCAR's smallest and slowest track, he's led more than 1,200 laps and recorded a totally ridiculous average finish of 1.5. If you go back 10 races, that average finish "balloons" to 2.4. And yes, he's won three of the past four races in this year's Chase for the Championship. But before you hand Johnson another grandfather clock for winning at Martinsville, let me bring up one name: Denny Hamlin.

He's the only other guy to claim a victory on the paper-clip-shaped track since fall 2006. This past spring, the FedEx Toyota driver led 296 laps to Johnson's 42, but had to settle for second place. Hamlin's worst Martinsville finish in his past six starts is sixth, and with five top-5 runs, his average finish over that period is a tick over 3. He is also the most consistent driver this year on the short tracks, scoring more points than anyone, recording a win and four top-5 runs in the five races run to date on tracks less than a mile, leading 750 laps along the way. He's also been averaging 167 points a race in those five short-track shootouts.

The other guy who has some fan-tastic Martinsville numbers is Jeff Gordon. In his past 13 starts on the half-mile track, he won four times, sweeping both races in 2003 and 2005, and collected 11 top-5 finishes. His worst finish was ninth, and over that span, his average finish is an impressive 3.1. Gordon is fifth in short-track points this year.

OK, we have three clear-cut favorites, but who else could make some noise? Well, what about Tony Stewart, with two Martinsville wins and a third-place finish in March? Or his teammate Ryan Newman, who was sixth in the spring and is ranked fourth in points scored during the five 2009 short-track races?

A couple other drivers who need to be on your radar screen are Marcos Ambrose and Dale Earnhardt Jr.. I know what you're saying when you point out that Junior hasn't done a thing lately, but while he may be struggling on the bigger speedways, he's never really lost his short-track mojo. He's 22nd in overall points, but 13th in short-track points scored in 2009, averaging 116 points per short-track event. Also add in the fact Dale Jr. was the runner-up a year ago and came home eighth this past spring.

As for Ambrose, he finished 14th back in March in his maiden run at Martinsville. He should be even better the second time around at a track where you charge the corners like a road course, and we all know what kind of road racer Ambrose is. Also consider that he has surprised a lot of people by being ranked eighth in short-track points, with a top-5 and two top-10 runs.

Short-track points 2009 -- Five of six races run: 1. Denny Hamlin (836), 2. Kyle Busch (821), 3. Mark Martin (801), 4. Ryan Newman (750), 5. Jeff Gordon (736), 6. Jimmie Johnson (692), 7. Kurt Busch (687), 8. Marcos Ambrose (647), 9. Jeff Burton (643), 10. Clint Bowyer (643), 11. Tony Stewart (623), 12. Juan Pablo Montoya (593), 13. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (583), 14. Jamie McMurray (544), 15. Kasey Kahne (543), 16. Brian Vickers (536), 17. Reed Sorenson (529), 18. David Reutimann (529), 19. Greg Biffle (526), 20. Casey Mears (526), 21. Carl Edwards (521), 22. Matt Kenseth (504), 23. A.J. Allmendinger (499), 24. Sam Hornish Jr. (481), 25. Kevin Harvick (451)

Big Bucks (SCC value 22.0 and up)

Jimmie Johnson (25.1) is the clear favorite in this group, but you'll have a couple of other solid picks in Denny Hamlin (22.5) and Jeff Gordon (24.4). It's gets a little iffy after that. I expect Tony Stewart (24.1) to make a run at a top-5, with Ryan Newman (22.2) and Mark Martin (23.7) potential top-10 finishers.

Serious Coin (SCC value 19.0 to 22.0)

This is going to be a little tougher group to figure out this week. Clint Bowyer (21.5) should be a decent pick, while his RCR teammates Jeff Burton (19.5) and Casey Mears (19.9) are a little cheaper and should get some of your attention. Burton is ninth in short-track points scored this year, and in 2008, Mears finished sixth in this race. The sleeper, though, in this group could very well be Marcos Ambrose (20.0). In the past two fall races, Matt Kenseth (21.4) finished fifth and eighth. Carl Edwards (21.9) was third a year ago.

Budget Boys (SCC value 13.0 to 19.0)

It will take getting into the garage area Sunday morning to really figure out the "budgeteers." David Ragan (15.8) was 13th in this race a year ago and has been running better lately than he has all this season. His teammate Jamie McMurray (16.8) came home 10th back in March. I also like Dale Earnhardt Jr. (16.9). You might also get some help from Kevin Harvick (18.4), Martin Truex Jr. (18.1) and A.J. Allmendinger (17.3).

Debit ... not credit

Up in our top-dollar category, it's hard for me to figure out why you would want to go with Kurt Busch (23.5) or Juan Pablo Montoya (22.7). Busch has done nothing at Martinsville the past two years, with a best finish of 18th, which happened this spring. Montoya has been basically a 12th-place car at Martinsville the past three starts and is more expensive than Denny Hamlin, who's got a chance to win. Ryan Newman is also cheaper and has more upside than Montoya. This is also one of the worst tracks for Kasey Kahne (22.3). In the serious coin category, Greg Biffle (21.9) hasn't done much at Martinsville and is definitely overvalued this weekend. I also don't think you'll get much out of Brian Vickers (19.9) or Joey Logano (18.9).

Guru Garrow's gang

Mark Martin's 17th-place finish was the key to my disappointing 654-point score a week ago at Charlotte, so he's got to go. I'm revamping just about my whole team for Martinsville, getting rid of Martin, Mike Bliss, Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch. My new prelim team for the TUMS Fast Relief 500 will continue to have Jimmie Johnson at the top, but I've traded Martin for Denny Hamlin. I could no longer afford "Shrub," so I traded him for Marcos Ambrose, swapped Harvick for Dale Jr. and made David Ragan my "floor" pick, though at this point I'm not all that confident in making that choice.